Prediction Markets | World Cup Tracker
The World Cup has clearly driven a major uplift in prediction market activity. Kalshi’s daily volume reached $1B for the first time.
On a category basis, soccer is now running at roughly $600M of daily volume, about 3x the prior “Knicks day” peak, or NFL peak.
HOOD’s Rothera has also been gaining traction. On total volume, Rothera is now approximately 6% of Kalshi’s total volume. This is not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, since Rothera is currently focused only on the World Cup, while Kalshi spans multiple categories including soccer, NBA, and others. On a more comparable basis, Rothera is roughly 12% of Kalshi’s soccer volume.
A few nuances:
Kalshi likely still distributes through HOOD. If the implied share is consistent with prior months - big if - at roughly the low-20%s level, then the incremental HOOD volume from Rothera alone would represent about a +25% uplift.
Rothera’s pricing is still unknown at this point, versus the 1 cent economics via Kalshi.
Previous work on NFL vs World Cup estimates:
Previous work on 2026 1H prediction marekt volume:
Source: BAML does the best work on prediction market data tracking. https://rsch.baml.com/report?q=25cD!ebxGjwlmGSxo0xLDA__&e=julie.hoover%40bofa.com&h=JWi5fg