SpaceX | S-1 Full Analysis
Summarized from a few of my X posts, just to have all information in one place. Anthropic deal; Google deal; IPO float supply & demand
Anthropic <> SpaceX Deal:
As disclosed in the revised S1: "in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Compute capacity provided includes approximately 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs, backed by hyperscale-class CPUs, exabyte-scale storage and high-speed networking and interconnects purpose-built for AI workloads." $Anthropic’s total payment to SpaceX is $15B per year, based on the SpaceX S-1 “$1.25B per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee.”
Assuming Colossus 1 is fully leased out (150,000 H100s + 50,000 H200s + 30,000 GB200s), then the implied # of GB200/300 leased out from Colossus 2 would be 95k.
The weighted hourly rate to get to $15B/yr would be $5/hr.
Taking publicly available info on power per chip, the combined facility power would be ~590mw.
Implied revenue would be ~$25B per GW.
Taking ARKK's number below, SpaceXai spent $29b per GW building out that capacity.
Per Elon: "This is a short-term deal."
GOOGL <> SpaceX deal
$920 million per month for 110,000 GPUs implies roughly $11.50 per GPU-hour.
According to public sources, the GPUs in Colossus 2 are mainly GB200 / GB300:
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-partners-ai-infrastructure-america
Public-market lease rates for GB200 / GB200 NVL72 appear to be roughly $9–11 per GPU-hour for on-demand capacity, based on limited available data points:
CoreWeave lists GB200 NVL72 at $42/hour for a 4-GPU configuration, which normalizes to roughly $10.50 per GPU-hour.
https://coreweave.com/pricing
Spheron cites GB200 Superchips at $9.08/hour.
https://spheron.network/blog/nvidia-h200-vs-b200-vs-gb200/
This suggests the implied $11.50 per GPU-hour lease rate is at the high end of public-market spot pricing. This is equivalent to ~$50B per GW.
Separately, Google reportedly owns around 6% of SpaceX.
https://zerohedge.com/markets/googles-stake-spacex-could-be-worth-122-billion-ipo
After the new lease deal:
110k GPUs leased to Google
~95k GPUs estimated to be leased to Anthropic, per the analysis below
In total, roughly 205k GPUs, or around 40% of Colossus 2’s 550k current GPU capacity, appears to be effectively leased.
Exact wording on the Google deal:
“On June 5, 2026, we entered into a Cloud Service Agreement with Google with respect to access to compute capacity. The customer has agreed to pay us $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029, with capacity ramping up through September at a reduced fee. The compute capacity provided includes approximately 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, memory, and other related components. After December 31, 2026, the agreement may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice. The customer will retain ownership of, and intellectual property rights in, its content, AI models, and related data.”
Reflection AI <> SpaceX Deal
Renting GB300s to Reflection AI, the $25B US open-source lab, for $150M/month, starting Jul 1 2026 through 2029. $6.3B total.
How many GW does $150M/m actually buy?
Depends on your $/GW benchmark:
• Anthropic (~$25B/GW) → ~0.25 GW (~250 MW)
• Google (~$44B/GW) → ~0.14 GW (~140 MW)
IPO Supply vs. Demand for SpaceX
Supply / lockup schedule -
Potential 9% unlock on the second trading day after 2Q26 earnings. That is roughly 2x the IPO float.
Demand / index buying schedule -
T+5: passive/index buying could equal ~7–10% of the initial 4% float.
Total T+5 to T+15: passive/index demand could equal ~17–25% of the initial 4% float.
Analysis -
Day 0–15 / Jun 12–Jun 27, 2026: Thin float + passive buyers + price-insensitive demand likely create a sharp supply-demand squeeze.
Day 15–70 / Jun 27–Aug 21, 2026: Air pocket. Index buying is mostly done.
Day 70–180 / Aug 21–Dec 9, 2026: Digestion phase. More shares unlock, but a higher float may also force additional index buying.
Day 366 / Jun 13, 2027: The 51% unlock is the biggest overhang. Actual selling could be much smaller if Musk does not sell.
Upside kicker: S&P 500 inclusion. If SpaceX becomes eligible after the float expands, S&P inclusion could create a second wave of passive buying.
Comparing new S-1 vs. the previous version:
New S-1/A:
“Pursuant to these agreements, [Anthropic] has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. After the initial three-month period, the agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice.”
Old S-1:
“Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. The agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice.”
Basically a guaranteed 180-day contract (vs. min 90-day before).
At the same time, Elon seems to suggest it’s a short-term (not full-term):
Other changes are summarized by Sawyer below:
Source: S-1; all based on public information
The information presented in this newsletter is the opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the view of any other person or entity, including Altimeter Capital Management, LP (”Altimeter”). The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Altimeter is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Altimeter and its clients trade in public securities and have made and/or may make investments in or investment decisions relating to the companies referenced herein. The views expressed herein are those of the author and not of Altimeter or its clients, which reserve the right to make investment decisions or engage in trading activity that would be (or could be construed as) consistent and/or inconsistent with the views expressed herein.
This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
it's very hard not to think the "short-term deal" was set up to boost the offering price... though I know at that time token-maxxing made Anthropic desperate for compute.
If CoreWeave and other Neoclouds truly rent out their GB200s at $9–10/hour and H200s at $6/hour, why is their unit revenue constantly below $10B/GW, and why did it go even lower in 1Q26? The gap is huge. With even half the price Elon got, Coreweave would have taken off.
Is it because their long-term deals were made quarters ago, with prices locked in back then?